Dollar Dips, Bitcoin Declines

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201 Views December 17, 2024

The U.S. economy continues to show signs of resilience as recent labor market data keeps the outlook strong. On December 5, the U.S. Department of Labor released figures revealing that the number of individuals seeking unemployment benefits rose slightly to 224,000 for the week ending November 30, surpassing market expectations of 215,000. This figure is also up from the previous week's count of 213,000. Despite this uptick in initial claims, the number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits fell to 1.871 million, better than forecasts which anticipated 1.904 million, hinting at a still robust job market.

Analysts await the employment report for November, set to be published soon. Projections are notably positive, predicting a substantial rise in nonfarm payrolls, expected to jump from October’s figure of 120,000 to around 214,000. The previous month's numbers were heavily influenced by specific factors including hurricanes and a strike at Boeing, which analysts believe stunted growth. With the anticipated rebound in November's figures, there’s a prevailing optimism about job recovery.

However, such optimism comes with caution. Goldman Sachs raised a warning that if the nonfarm payroll numbers exceed 275,000, it could trigger a downturn in U.S. stock markets. Strong job figures could lead the Federal Reserve to adopt a more cautionary stance in their upcoming meeting in December, potentially shaking investor confidence.

In the wake of the labor data release, the dollar index experienced a sharp decline, falling below the 106 mark before slightly recovering, ultimately dropping by 0.34% to 105.9620. Gold and silver prices followed suit, with spot gold also dipping, down by 0.54%, to $2635.850 per ounce, while silver fell by 0.72% to $31.087.

The World Gold Council made headlines last week by announcing that central banks worldwide reported a net purchase of 60 tons of gold in November, marking the highest monthly buying record of the year. India's central bank led the way, augmenting its reserves by an impressive 27 tons, followed by Turkey and Poland, which added 17 tons and 8 tons, respectively. This increase reflects a broader strategy among central banks to diversify their reserves amidst economic uncertainties.

Meanwhile, oil futures began to stabilize following a turbulent period. The OPEC+ coalition has decided to delay plans for production increases until April of next year, which is the third such postponement. As part of their strategy, OPEC intends to gradually lift production cuts after the first quarter of next year and maintain this until 2026. This caution has resulted in a slight uptick in prices, with Brent crude futures climbing 0.26% to $72.480 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.34% to $68.770.

In the world of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin displayed remarkable strength, managing to breach the $100,000 threshold during trading hours with a peak value recorded at $103,599. Market analysts suggest that Bitcoin's upward momentum can be attributed to several key factors, including the appointment of Paul Atkins, a cryptocurrency-friendly figure, as chairman of the SEC. Furthermore, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments at the DealBook/Summit, characterizing Bitcoin as more of a competitor to gold rather than the U.S. dollar, have provided a bullish sentiment to the cryptocurrency market.

Turning to the U.S. stock markets, the three major indices opened slightly higher but soon encountered selling pressure, with all indexes retreating into the red. As of the latest updates, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had fallen by 0.19%, the Nasdaq was down by 0.15%, and the S&P 500 dropped 0.12%. Analysts reported that despite the negative turn, about 3,486 stocks showed gains while 5,056 experienced losses, indicating mixed investor sentiments across various sectors.

In particular, shares of Nvidia saw an impressive rise, climbing over 5% due to recent innovations in AI technology, alongside other tech concepts making similar gains. However, sectors like CAR-T and gene editing witnessed declines of over 8% and 7%, respectively, emphasizing a rotation in investment preferences among traders.

The Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book, which serves as an economic snapshot, illustrated that most regions experienced slight economic growth. It noted modest and moderate growth in three regions, which counteracted stagnation or minor declines in two others. In this economic environment, Fed Chair Powell emphasized during a prior session that the current economic resilience surpasses their expectations since lowering interest rates started in September. He highlighted that risks in the labor market have lessened while inflation remains slightly elevated, signaling a potential shift towards a slower pace for future rate cuts.

Bonds reflected positive trading sentiment, with yields across U.S. Treasury notes showing rebounds. The ten-year Treasury yield saw a rise of 2.3 basis points, settling at 4.205%, fluctuating between 4.182% and 4.226%. Similarly, the three-year yield increased by 4.3 basis points to 4.126%, while the two-year yield was up by 4.8 basis points at 4.169%. The one-year note also saw a slight gain of 2.9 basis points, reaching 4.253% during trade swings.

In the realm of popular American stocks, Nvidia experienced a modest uptick of 0.27%, while Tesla surged by 3.36%. Other market movers included Microsoft and Amazon, both adding gains, whereas Apple and Intel fell by 0.18% and 4.21%, respectively. These fluctuations underscore the variable nature of tech stocks amidst shifting investor priorities and broader macroeconomic trends.

Chinese stocks amid Nasdaq listings presented a mixed bag, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index opening strong before retreating. It reported a gain of 0.67% by the writing's end. Notable stocks included Alibaba, which dipped by 0.91%, and JD.com, which rose 2.24%, illustrating the dynamic interplay of international markets and investor sentiment.

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