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As the world turns its gaze to the realm of finance, the gold market has recently witnessed a significant breakthrough after a series of fluctuating trading sessionsOver four consecutive days of ups and downs, Thursday marked a pivotal moment as gold prices broke through a previously established range, finally dipping to a low of $2620. This movement stirred mixed sentiments among traders: while a downward trend seemed apparent, there was still a sense of uncertainty lingering in the airThe much-anticipated non-farm payroll data, which is due to be released soon, could potentially influence gold prices, opening the door for larger downward movements or perhaps stabilizing the market.
On that fateful Thursday, the gold trading strategies had been bearing fruitPositions taken at $2652 and $2648 yielded substantial profits, with traders now bracing themselves for the non-farm payroll data's impact as they considered wrapping up trading for the week
In the silver market, I had previously highlighted a retreat below the resistance level at $31.5. Silver prices also fell, reaching around $30.8, reaffirming the bearish sentiment as short positions generated favorable returnsThe day ahead promises to showcase further fluctuations, particularly in anticipation of vital employment data influence.
Following the release of the weekly unemployment claims data, both the dollar and gold exhibited declinesThe primary factor behind this downturn was the cooling expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts set for DecemberYet, while gold's price experienced a downturn, its decline was cushioned by geopolitical tensions globallyThe market's focus is sharply directed towards employment figures that may provide clarity on the jobs market, with predictions anticipating an addition of approximately 200,000 non-farm jobs for November—up from a meager increase of merely 12,000 the previous month, marking December 2020's lowest employment growth
Unemployment rates are projected to inch up from 4.1% to potentially 4.3%, offering a slight boost to the dollar while signaling caution for gold.
As the interrelationship between the dollar and gold continues to unfold, both assets reacted similarly to the unemployment data releaseThe dollar attempted to probe the support level at 105.5 while gold also succumbed to declines, extending the range of its bearish trendObserving the current landscape, traders must pay close attention to the upcoming non-farm payroll report, which will elucidate whether the dollar can breach the 105.5 mark and consequently pressure its price downwardsIn such a scenario, gold might find itself poised for a definitive downtrend if the labor data leans negative.
In previous market conditions, technical analysis often had an upper hand; however, the prevailing environment seems to blend fundamental and technical indicators, complicating market forecasts
Analysis revealed fluctuations that suggested an inevitable breakthrough—predominantly in a bearish direction—over the past weekThe prospect of gold testing the 2600 mark becomes compelling, especially in light of a potential breach and a subsequent long-term single-direction movementShould this threshold be violated, future price targets might reveal levels closer to $2535, or even $2420.
At the moment, it appears the market enforces a bearish sentiment with daily candle formations reflecting consistent downward pressureThe four-hour chart presents potential round top formations, reinforcing the bearish forecastNevertheless, with the forthcoming labor data looming, the technical indicators might hold less weight against the impact of fundamental newsTraders await the report to understand if we will experience a significant trend or a countertrend rebound
If the jobs data surprises positively, a reversal might transpire amidst bearish sentiment—but one that likely wouldn't break through $31.5. Conversely, a negative report could set into motion a rapid downward spiral, particularly past the $2600 support where we hold no bias against short positions.
Turning to the silver market, it has manifestly followed anticipated declining trajectoriesThroughout the week, I had repeatedly cautioned against long positions above the $31.5 resistance that would yield entry points for shortsAfter riding the fluctuations for four days, prices have now reached around $30.9, evidencing considerable profits from short tradesMoving forward, the silver market's performance is tightly linked to the anticipated labor figuresShould the data emerge unfavorably, silver prices might find themselves testing levels around $30.5 again, but regardless of any potential rallies—that upper resistance remains vital to note for future positioning and profit-taking strategies.
In the world of oil, Thursday saw prices rallying off a low of $68, peaking near $69.1, yet it has remained largely within a sideways trading range